Is It Warm In Here, Or Is It Just Me?

February 1, 2022

Cathedral City, California

     Let's talk about global warming, shall we?  Or climate change, as they like to call it, since the overall warming of things also causes anomalies in some places that don't make it warmer, and then stupid people are likely to say, "Global warming my ass, look how fucking cold it is out there!" and the point gets lost.  It's about two or three degrees of complexity beyond the thinking capacity of the average knuckleheaded American, at least, to connect the dots having to do with changes in ocean currents and weather patterns and all that.  Only when people in south Florida are up to their ankles in water at the Tiki Bar listening to Jimmy Buffett songs will they really get the point.  And maybe not even then.

    I'm not blogging here for the benefit of anybody who doesn't think global warming is happening.  But I also do not wish to beat a dead (or slowly drowning) horse.  The science is there, and I believe it.  Ice is melting off the glaciers at the poles, and when you add more water to a container of water (the oceans in this case), the water level goes up.  Anybody who's had Scotch on the rocks should know that.  And the carbon dioxide layer that is causing the melting is also holding in more heat everywhere.  So there you go.

     In a book I read recently, the author divided people's reactions to the inevitability of global warming into three categories:  optimism, in which people think that everything's going to be pretty much okay, come what may; pessimism, in which people think the world as we know it is going to be disastrously obliterated; and futurism, in which people are searching for a way to escape the planet and start over again somewhere else.  I'll address the futurists first, to get them out of the way.  They're a bunch of fools and nuts, and also monumentally selfish for thinking they can leave their own shitty mess behind and create another one somewhere else.  

     Now let's take a look at optimism and pessimism about the effects of global warming.  First, let me say that I don't fall squarely within either of these two camps.  I would call my own view one of guarded optimism.  I don't think everything's going to be great, by any means.  Lots of people will have to move because they live too close to shore.  And there will be large populations that can't move because they're too poor, and so they will fall victim to typhoons and floods and tidal waves.  Everyone won't be as affluently tidy and industrious and foresighted as, say, the Dutch.  Besides that, as it gets warmer, the distribution of fresh water will change, too, and agriculture will surely change as a result, maybe for the better and maybe for the worse, but change it will.  And that will be that.

     But there's this, also.  We're heading for hell in a fairly slow-moving handbasket.  That gives us time to come up with solutions, which is something we have a tendency to do when we are forced to.  By "we" I mean our species.  Other species will, for the most part, have to fend for themselves, unless they are ones we particularly care about and depend on for our own survival, like livestock and pets.  Whether or not that's a good thing is not going to be the subject of this posting.  But the fact remains that the only reason we care whether certain species become extinct is because it affects us in some way--morally, aesthetically, or materially.

     Back to the warmth.  It's a done deal, for sure, but the real question is what it will do to the resources we depend on for survival.  Our survival is paramount to us, just as, I assume, the survival of other animals is paramount to them.  Everything we've seen about human progress indicates that as time has gone by, there have been more of us and fewer of other species.  Maybe some day it'll just be humans and corn and a handful of pollinating birds and insects.  And that'll do it.  

     Here's a funny thing about global warming.  These days, absolutely every damned thing that happens, weatherwise and climatewise, gets blamed on global warming.  If there's a hurricane in New Orleans, well, that's global warming.  If it's a colder winter than usual in Iowa, that's global warming.  If it snows in Istanbul, well, you know what to blame that on, right?  This warming trend gets the blame for it all, whether it's at the root of it or not.  And in any event there's not a goddamned thing we can do about it, really.  Iacta alea est, as Caesar said.  The die is cast.  We can certainly slow the progression of warming a tiny bit, or speed it up, but we can't change the fact that it's going to keep happening for the foreseeable future.

     So I say, relax.  But by relax, I don't mean do nothing, only just quit wringing your hands, or gnashing your teeth, or doing any of those other things that start with a silent letter (knocking on wood? psyching yourself out?).  Worrying is going to do absolutely no good, and will divert us from our goals.  Instead, get to work, mankind.  Already we've seen what can be done in this country when the government even modestly encourages (under the current administration), rather than vigorously discourages (as was done under the previous administration) the transition to energy sources and usages that spew less carbon into the air, or at least slow that process down.  Windmills, which I personally hate and consider a blight on the landscape, are proliferating, and getting bigger and more efficient.  So I'll put up with the ugliness, at least until they come up with something better.  Solar panels are another good way to create electricity, and we seem to be creating more solar areas in the deserts and on rooftops, and most importantly, the collection technology is improving.  And those are just the two that come to mind.  Electric vehicles are a foregone conclusion and going full tilt now, too, though the source of the electricity for their recharging needs to be cleaner, too.  

     However, despite all our best efforts, even if we were to somehow magically unite worldwide on the issue of carbon emission and dedicate ourselves to putting the brakes on it, nothing will reverse its inevitable course.  There are too many people using too much stuff for that to happen, and the rest of human progress has done nothing but create conditions for the population to increase, rather than decrease.  And even as we try to become more affluent and spread a higher standard of living throughout the world, we create more of what has put us in this global warming mess in the first place--cars, appliances, and the need for more carbon-emitting energy.  So should we throw up our hands and say, in effect, forget about it, because it's only going to get worse?   Should we somehow, magically, revert to some prehistoric manner of living?  That would be the thinking of the pessimists on the issue.  And it is going to get worse, or warmer, anyway.

     Coming to grips with global warming is a little like suddenly facing up to the fact that you're getting older.  Your first impulse is to deny it, as many people are denying climate change, or ascribing it to natural fluctuations in the earth's temperature that have happened historically over millions of years, and doing nothing except to ensure immediate comfort.  Then after that, with respect to aging, your impulse is to panic, and to ascribe every little thing to the aging process.  Oh my god, I have an ache or pain that I didn't have yesterday--I must be getting older.  Shit!  Then after that, for some folks at least, the next step is to get busy changing lifestyles in order to stave off the effects of aging--changing diet, getting more exercise, taking medication to improve cardiovascular health, all the while cheating a little here and there.  That's the stage where we are now vis a vis global warming, at least among the Paris Climate Accord nations.  But as with aging, while that may buy us some time, it's not going to reverse the process.  It's going to progress.

     But here my analogy breaks down.  Because with individual human aging the inevitable outcome is, simply, death.  On the other hand, with climate change we don't know the outcome yet.  It might be the death of homo sapiens, but I really doubt that.  Nor will it be some sort of accelerated evolution in a specific direction, like Kevin Costner with his gills in that silly movie Waterworld.  Rather, I predict that we'll muddle along for a long long time, just getting warmer and dealing with it.  And who knows whether this will come about, since it will happen over centuries and this blog will disappear or become as incomprehensible as the languages on the Rosetta stone once were.

     So fuck it, and don't worry.